Free tool
The market-climate dashboard
What the market is priced for versus what companies actually earn — three lights, five charts, and the fear gauge. Built for a daily check.
Expected EPS Growth
+37.9% — rising
F(t) / F(t − 52 weeks) − 1 · S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS
as of 2026-09-17 · updates weekly
Trailing EPS Expansion
+11.8% — accelerating
TTM(t) / TTM(t − 1 quarter) − 1 · S&P 500 trailing 12-month EPS
as of 2026-07-03 · updates weekly
Weekly Price Momentum
-0.49% — down on the week
S&P 500 close(t) / close(t − 5 sessions) − 1
as of 2026-10-01 · updates weekly
VIX — fear gauge
16.39
Neutral
updates daily · CBOE Volatility Index
How to read it
- Green light: expectations expanding, actual earnings accelerating, price up on the week. The climate favors putting money to work.
- Yellow light: the line turned down — expectations being cut, earnings decelerating, or price down on the week. The climate favors caution, smaller size, and protection.
- The three lights don't always agree — that disagreement is information. Expectations running far ahead of reality is exactly what this dashboard is built to show.
- VIX: below 12 is extreme greed (complacent), 12–16 greed, 16–20 neutral, 20–30 fear, above 30 extreme fear.
Note: Q2 2026 quarterly operating EPS was 100.47 (+51% YoY) on one-time items (per LSEG Sep 2026 reporting); Jun-2026 TTM = 321.14. Genuine but anomalous.
Price vs Expected Earnings Growth
S&P 500 weekly close with the expected EPS growth rate (YoY forward EPS) — last 4 years
Background: green quarters = growth rate accelerated vs prior quarter · red = decelerated.
Price vs Trailing EPS
S&P 500 weekly close with trailing 12-month operating EPS — last 4 years
Background: green quarters = growth rate accelerated vs prior quarter · red = decelerated.
Fused composite — all three together
Weekly S&P 500 candlesticks over the quarterly trailing-momentum background — last 3 years
Background: green quarters = growth rate accelerated vs prior quarter · red = decelerated.
Expected EPS Growth Rate
The raw indicator behind the fused tile — YoY change in forward EPS, last 1 year
Background: green quarters = growth rate accelerated vs prior quarter · red = decelerated.
Trailing EPS Rate of Change
Quarterly rate of change in trailing 12-month EPS — last 4 years
Background: green quarters = growth rate accelerated vs prior quarter · red = decelerated.
S&P 500
7,666.45
+0.19% today · -0.49% this week
as of 2026-10-01 · daily
Total put/call ratio
0.90
calls outnumber puts — complacent bid
as of 2026-10-01 · daily
% of S&P 500 above 50-day avg
22.9%
115 of 503 stocks · narrow leadership under ~60%
as of 2026-10-01 · daily
10Y − 2Y Treasury spread
0.46 pp
positive — no inversion
as of 2026-10-01 · daily
Research
How it's built — the full research
Every component explained, the data behind each indicator, and the full chart history — S&P 500 candles with forward and trailing EPS, three-year blocks, and the rate-of-change panels from the original research dashboard.
Open the research dashboardFree · no account needed · opens in a new tab
Data provenance
Forward EPS: digitized from a Yardeni Research published chart (LSEG I/B/E/S data), estimated accuracy ±1%. Trailing EPS: transcribed from LSEG I/B/E/S This Week in Earnings. Price: S&P 500 weekly closes. VIX: CBOE via Yahoo Finance. 10Y–2Y spread: FRED. Total put/call ratio: CBOE Daily Market Statistics. Breadth: % of S&P 500 constituents above their 50-day moving average, computed daily from Yahoo Finance closes (constituent list via Wikipedia); if the daily compute ever fails, the card falls back to the weekly snapshot and says so. Lights 1–2 refresh with the weekly/quarterly EPS data; the VIX, S&P 500, spread, and put/call refresh daily. We annotate anomalies — like Q2 2026's one-time items — instead of smoothing them away. If the data ever stops being trustworthy, we'll say so here.